Like my five-year-old, you might still feel like you need #BlameJudson for the lack of snow. He put the spoon under his pillow, threw ice cubes in the toilet, ran around the table and sang "Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow" AND wore his pajamas inside out the night before. Even though we saw white flakes, there was still not enough snow on the ground to use the sled I bought him when he was two.
I'm just as disappointed as everyone else that our snowless streak in Atlanta continues. But there is a chance - if we get measurable snow later in the week - we will keep from breaking the record of going 1,477 days without snow. (We are currently sitting on 1,460 days on Monday.)
Some computer forecast models suggest that another winter system will hit parts of the South and come up the coast this weekend. This storm system, if you believe in one model, will bring real snow to Atlanta, but also an icy mess to coastal cities like Savannah in Georgia and Charleston in South Carolina.
Not to mention, it could actually bring good accumulating snow to cities in the northeast like New York.
The problem is that there is less uncertainty in this storm system than last weekend.
Last week, both global weather models showed the same overall weather pattern, but disagreed on the details.
This week, we can not even say that we are sure that anything will happen.
"Abundant forecast proliferation and continuity issues limit the predictability of particular system threats on days 4-7," the Weather Prediction Center said Monday morning in its forecast discussion.
What is certain is that a cold front will penetrate the central United States Wednesday and across the east until Thursday, leaving an Arctic explosion of cold air behind.
Temperatures from the plains to the east coast can drop 20 to 30 degrees below normal.
Texas, for example, will have many areas from the 70s and 80s Tuesday to the mid-30s and lower 40s on Thursday.
As cool temperatures are established across the east Thursday through Friday, a low-pressure system is expected to form along the cold front and just off the coast of Georgia. If formed near the coast, it can filter moisture from the Atlantic Ocean into the cold air, allowing winter precipitation to form in areas that you may not associate with ice or snow. Take, for example, Charleston, South Carolina.
It also adds a similar disclaimer: "There has been drastic run-to-run inconsistency between the global models, which has resulted in a low confidence forecast."
There it is, "maybe". Does that sound familiar? Here's why.
The one model showing the system close to the coast picks it up along the coast and brings more winter precipitation for a longer period of time to Georgia, the Carolinas and then into mid-Atlantic and coastal New England.
The American weather model still shows some precipitation in the south, but not the widespread European model. It forms a low, but the storm system is moving rapidly eastward away from the coast. This means that there is still some winter precipitation in some areas, but less. Therefore, my son's dreams of sledding are likely to be shattered again. But this result will probably be better for those of you who are chopping loose on the ice today or digging out of the snow.
Another complex wrinkle is the latest American model showing another shot of snow in the South on Sunday.
But it's worth keeping an eye on this week.
An unexpected cloud that the meteorological community did not expect to see on Saturday
Just when you think you’ve figured it all out, Mother Nature loves to throw a basket ball. While millions in the southeastern part of the country were preparing for a huge winter storm - deciding if it was worth getting a sled - a volcanic eruption was the last we saw coming.
We were all so focused with a one-track mind on the winter weekend ahead. Then suddenly - BOOM! It was an explosion that was felt and heard around the world, and an explosion we never saw coming. A volcano erupted off the island of Tonga in the South Pacific, creating literal shock waves - and tsunami waves - around the world.
Saturday morning's eruption was probably the largest volcanic eruption the planet has seen in more than 30 years. Gas, ash and steam shot up into the sky nearly 19 miles high, and a tsunami was triggered by the incredible water displacement from the explosion. Waves began to travel across the Pacific Ocean in all directions, even affecting the west coast of the United States and Hawaii.
If you want to nerd me a little bit about what continues to blow my meteorological mind, let's continue. First, the fact that the eruption was actually heard as far away as Alaska - nearly 6,000 miles away - is absolutely wild!
There was a pressure drop that could also be felt around the world. Meteorologists took to Twitter to show the slow rise and then rapid pressure drops at stations around the world, including the United States.
In terms of affecting our weather around the world, experts say it's a little too early to say. Erik Klemetti, an associate professor of geoscience at Denison University in Ohio, tells CNN that the Tonga eruption may have a regional impact on temperature, though scientists are still unsure of its significance. Klemetti noted that it ultimately depends on how much sulfur dioxide entered the atmosphere.
Interesting note: most people think it is the ash that affects global temperatures and weather after a volcanic eruption. It is actually the sulfur dioxide that reacts with water and forms aerosols that reflect sunlight back into space to absorb heat in the upper atmosphere.